Reasoning with a Hurricane; The Cone of Doom - Maybe They’re Right, We Hope They’re Wrong

As Hurricanes continue to dot the Atlantic basin this season, the National Hurricane Center’s storm track and model data is watched by every South Easterner who could possibly be impacted by a named storm.  Known as the “Cone of Concern” (or “doom”, as you may have it), once published this information is watched closely by anyone in the path of an impending storm and broadcast widely by every news outlet.

As storms erupt and tracks are published both the National Hurricane Center and media channels need to be very careful in their messaging about where a Hurricane may make landfall.  They must also be aware of the doom and gloom forecasts they promote have direct impacts on how masses react.  As connectors, both forecasters and newscasters yield lots of followers – and that number only increases as a storm grows closer to the United States shoreline.  Hyperbolic news casting, coupled with dramatic forecasts, can lead to mass hysteria that in some cases causes premature actions that lead to shortages, traffic jams and scams.

Although we have the technology available for long-range forecasting a hurricane’s data, position and strength, the officials and public personalities millions rely upon for facts, must measure their communications in a manner that accurately reflects a true picture of a hurricane’s forecast.  Calling for landfall 5-7 days out with an aura of confidence, when in reality it is an educated guess, leaves millions vulnerable to acting on dynamic information.  Broadcasting an evolving storm with such certainty, when in reality multiple outcomes can occur, makes for an untenable situation.

People act on the word of authority figures.  National Weather Services, Television News outlets have become trusted sources, so their communication strategy must put a heavier emphasis on the unknowns and admit it is impossible to reason with a hurricane.  Some hubris in their forecasting ability must be accounted for when they tell viewers and public consumer “to act now” before it’s too late.  There is a fine line between stoking responsible decision making in the public and stoking unwarranted panic; let’s hope this Hurricane Season helps many newscasters find that fine line.